Top Players to Watch For NBA Draft Options

[Balta1701-B]

So, from that list, it sounds like if I want a replacement for our Gordon, we need to wind up with a shot at Gordon/Mayo.

[ZoomSlowik]

So, from that list, it sounds like if I want a replacement for our Gordon, we need to wind up with a shot at Gordon/Mayo.

Well, sort of. If you're talking about getting a guy that can be an impact scorer/player right away, then yeah, you need to have a pretty poor record and/or get lucky to get one of Beasley/Gordon/Mayo/Rose. That's virtually always true though, it's pretty rare that you can get an instant-impact guy outside the top-5, after that they usually need more development or have some kind of flaw that hurts their cause. That said, Mayo might slip because of his playing style, there's a decent chance he's one of those guys that does as much harm as good on the next level.

If they trade Gordon they can get reasonable replacements with Batum, Budinger, or Bayliss (really a PG, but more of a scorer right now) in the latter half of the lottery, you just need to make sure you get someone that can score back for Ben so you're not counting on them to regularly be more than the 4th scoring option on the floor at any given time for the first year or two.

Chris Douglas-Roberts or Brandon Rush may fit that mold too, though I haven't really decided if I like Roberts or not yet. He scores a ton in college, but he relies heavily on scoring in the paint, which will be a lot harder on the next level. He's a streaky shooter as well. Both of those guys would be later picks anyways, unless things turn around pretty drastically (for the Bulls or for their draft stock) they aren't really likely options.

[ZoomSlowik]

After another big game against Kansas tonight, I guess I better add Bill Walker, one of the most interesting prospects in the draft, to the list.

There's a reason I didn't have him on there before. At one point he was seen as a probable top-3 pick whatever year he came out, a powerful wing player with ridiculous leaping ability and a rapidly developing outside shot. He was compared to Vince Carter in his prime. That was before his senior year in high school though, and things went downhill from there. First, he was ruled inelgible for his senior season, with the high school board ruling that he had already earned enough credits to graduate. He ended up enrolling early at K-State and playing a few games, but then he tore his ACL. It was actually his second ACL tear, as he had one previously early in his high school career.

He fell off the radar a bit with major question marks about whether or not he still had NBA potential. However, as the year has gone on, he's improved his level of play. He's had two 30 point games this year and three more 20 point games, including two impressive showings against Texas A&M and Kansas (19 and 22 respectively). He's not quite the same player he once was, this year he's been relying on his jumper to produce points. He's become a pretty dangerous outside shooter, and his mid-range game has looked good as well. He can still finish inside and rebound pretty well, but he hasn't been as dangerous on the drive as he once was. It doesn't appear that he's totally back to 100% after the surgery yet.

The big question is still going to be the knee injury, mostly how it affects his athleticm. Will he ever totally regain his old form? If he does, he might be as talented as any player in the draft, possibly even Beasley. If he doesn't, a lot of people will question how effective he can be on the next level. His performaces against those two athletic, strong defensive teams that I mentioned earlier bode well, but his abilty to score when the jumpers aren't dropping would be a concern. He's probably a mid to late 1st round prospect right now, though if he keeps playing well and/or returns to his high-flying ways he could make his way back into the lottery. He's definitely an interesting prospect that may end up being a pretty good value for the team that drafts him.

[madisonsmadhouse]

I counted it up Sunday morning, and if the season ended then, the Bulls would have the #8 pick, before the lottery stuff. We could still end up with a good player after all.

[ZoomSlowik]

I'm starting to lean towards trading the pick if we don't get lucky and snag Beasley or Rose.

I just don't see a whole lot of good fits for the Bulls. I don't really like any of the bigs enough to say we should add them to the log jam (I do like Speights personally and to a lesser extent Patrick Patterson, but they're not the kind of sure-fire stud that they has to be for the pick to make sense) and there aren't really any good big guards that fit our need.

Our best option would be to take a tweener guard that's a shoot first player, which is a problem for us right now with Gordon. Eric Gordon is a heck of a talent but you have to worry about his wrist now and he just hasn't looked as good of late (a lot less driving and more turnovers)and I dislike Mayo because he's a selfish player on the court that will kill you with the low FG%/high turnovers. I'm starting to like Bayless more because he's ultra-quick and can score on the drive or the jumper, but he's still 6'3" and profiles as a shoot-first PG, those kind of guys often struggle to fit in as a strong contributor on a good team.

[Balta1701-B]

I'm starting to lean towards trading the pick if we don't get lucky and snag Beasley or Rose.

I just don't see a whole lot of good fits for the Bulls. I don't really like any of the bigs enough to say we should add them to the log jam (I do like Speights personally and to a lesser extent Patrick Patterson, but they're not the kind of sure-fire stud that they has to be for the pick to make sense) and there aren't really any good big guards that fit our need.

Our best option would be to take a tweener guard that's a shoot first player, which is a problem for us right now with Gordon. Eric Gordon is a heck of a talent but you have to worry about his wrist now and he just hasn't looked as good of late (a lot less driving and more turnovers)and I dislike Mayo because he's a selfish player on the court that will kill you with the low FG%/high turnovers. I'm starting to like Bayless more because he's ultra-quick and can score on the drive or the jumper, but he's still 6'3" and profiles as a shoot-first PG, those kind of guys often struggle to fit in as a strong contributor on a good team.

I think I'm of the opinion that even if the Bulls got a good pick...it's hard for me to say that they should hold on to the pick, because, counting Wallace, they'll have 9 guys who either because of their contracts or because of their youth/draft status will require minutes and there won't be enough to go around. Wallace, Gordon, Deng, Hinrich, Thabo, Nocioni, Thomas, Noah, this year's pick. 10 if you toss in Joe Smith.

Unless someone walks...there just isn't enough minutes to go around for this squad. I think you have to try to package the pick with, let's say Gordon or Deng, to try to come up with a major upgrade at 1 position. Trade quantity for quality if you can find someone willing to move an all-star level player.

[ZoomSlowik]

I think I'm of the opinion that even if the Bulls got a good pick...it's hard for me to say that they should hold on to the pick, because, counting Wallace, they'll have 9 guys who either because of their contracts or because of their youth/draft status will require minutes and there won't be enough to go around. Wallace, Gordon, Deng, Hinrich, Thabo, Nocioni, Thomas, Noah, this year's pick. 10 if you toss in Joe Smith.

Unless someone walks...there just isn't enough minutes to go around for this squad. I think you have to try to package the pick with, let's say Gordon or Deng, to try to come up with a major upgrade at 1 position. Trade quantity for quality if you can find someone willing to move an all-star level player.

Well, that assumes we keep everyone. Someone's probably gotta go regardless, the only question is which guys and for whom/what. If you get Beasley you can easily move Nocioni and Smith for future picks/expiring contracts to open up minutes for him (that'd also give you another 10 a game or so for Tyrus and Noah to split), and if you move Gordon that opens up a ton of minutes for a PG/SG like Rose or one of those tweeners. Then of course there's Wallace, but he'd require taking a sizeable contract back. Really the only thing I doubt happens is Deng going to make room for another SF, when he's on the floor he's still easily their best/most well-rounded player. It'll also probably be tough to trade him for fair value at the end of the year. You don't really HAVE to deal the pick to make an exchange like that, though it would help matters.

My problem is how many of these guys are a definite upgrade where it'd make sense to dump these guys and go with the younger option rather than just trading the pick? Beasley is pretty obvious, he's a big time combo forward that creates mis-matches at either spot. Rose has a ton of talent and can easily be the next great PG. After that you get a lot of project/less than stellar bigs and those combo guards I mentioned. They all have ability, but then we basically get another Ben Gordon that may/may not be as productive right away. I guess you could argue that a cheaper version of Gordon would be a big plus with him due to get paid, but then again if it's a downgrade it kind of negates it. It really depends on what's out there in terms of deals.

[madisonsmadhouse]

How much does the Bulls draft theory change with the addition of Hughes, Simmons, and Gooden (assuming Shannon Brown is not back with an expiring contract)?

[ZoomSlowik]

How much does the Bulls draft theory change with the addition of Hughes, Simmons, and Gooden (assuming Shannon Brown is not back with an expiring contract)?

Well, it would depend on what we do with all these guys from here. Things actually got more murky after that deal...

Backcourt- One would assume that Hinrich and Thabo are around for the longhaul unless something amazing comes up. Then you've got Hughes and Gordon, and for now Duhon. I would assume we'll try to unload Hughes and/or Gordon, though moving the former could be tough, and Duhon will probably walk. As of right now there's really no room for anyone other than a project backup PG, but if you move Gordon you can definitely take a guard. I'd still hang on to Brown personally, he's not the kind of guy that's going to eat a ton of minutes and he has a ton of athleticism.

SF- Still have Deng and Nocioni, leaving basically no minutes. The latter could be moving at some point, but the guy would have to be either a combo forward or a swingman to get enough minutes.

Frontcourt- It got cleared up a little, but there's still really no room for a new guy up there. The Gooden/Noah/Thomas trio will split at least 75 of the minutes up front(in fact I'd guess more), and Noc playing PF some and Gray/Simmons will take most of what's left. Gooden could potentially be moved next year as a productive player with an expiring deal, but even then you've already got 4 young big men on the roster, so unless they get a stud (aren't really any of those unless you like Lopez a lot) or a project with potential (Jordan, though I'd rather take other guys) I doubt they go that route.

[Balta1701-B]

At least to my eyes...the deal sets up the Bulls to draft the best PG available...or to try to package that pick for a player.

[dasox24]

The dilemma I have regarding the draft this year is that we already have a team full of good players. We just don't have that one superstar to put us over the hump, but that will be hard finding if we're picking in the 10-12th pick range. Right now, I think Michael Beasley will be an absolute stud for some team, and I'd do everything it takes to get him in the draft. It's time to be a little shrewd regarding our team b/c where it stands, we're not making it out of the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs at best.

I would not mind trading Gordon, Deng, and our 1st round pick for the #1 overall for us to get a chance to get a player like Beasley or Rose. I know people are afraid of getting younger and starting over b/c it seems like we've been doing that for 10 years now. But, sometimes you have to take a chance with some addition by subtraction. It would hurt losing players like that (and I'm a huge Deng fan), but if it got us the #1 pick, I'd do it.

A team of the following would look pretty darn good:
PG- Hinrich/Thabo/rookie
SG- Hughes/Thabo
SF- Beasley/Nocioni
PF- Gooden/Thomas
C- Noah/Gray

I just don't want to get stuck taking another "you get what you see" type of player. We have so many of those, and it's time for change.

This is all moot, however, if we can package some players and our #1 for a veteran star b/c I would rather not start young again. But, if this is the only viable option for landing a possible star, then I'll take that chance. Making the playoffs was fun and cute for awhile after all those 13-win seasons, but now that's not acceptable anymore. I want championships.

[madisonsmadhouse]

There is no doubt the Bulls need a bonified number one player to get over the top.

[Balta1701-B]

Lot more details in the article on Gordon in particular, but I thought this part was worth excerpting.

When we turn to Win Score - a metric that can tell us something about lighting up a box score — we see little reason to be optimistic about Gordon or Mayo. Entering Sunday’s action, Gordon had posted a 6.7 Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) played. Mayo has a mark of 6.0. When we look at all shooting guards drafted out of college between 1991 and 2006 (and who played at least some significant minutes in the NBA), we see an average WS40 of 8.7 the last year the player played college basketball. In other words, Gordon and Mayo are far below average.

To put “far below average” in perspective, here are the shooting guards with a WS40 below 7.0 (again from 1991 to 2006): Kareem Rush, Kirk Snyder, Toby Bailey, Tony Dumas, Lawrence Moten, Courtney Alexander, Ed Gray, DeJuan Wheat, Chris Smith, Jimmy King, Felipe Lopez, Larry Hughes, and Jamal Crawford.

[dasox24]

Lot more details in the article on Gordon in particular, but I thought this part was worth excerpting.

That is really interesting. Not the best company for those 2 guys to be with...

[ZoomSlowik]

Yeah, neither of these guys are exactly efficient players, though that's to be expected from most freshmen. They both have a tendency to try to go 1-5 a lot and aren't terribly concerned with creating shots for others. They should both score quite a bit, but will take a lot of shots to get their, turn it over a fair amount, and not offer a whole lot else. Think Jamal Crawford with a few more turnovers (and probably a better jumper in Gordon's case).

That said, there's at least some expectation by most scouts that their shot selection and decision making will improve as they get older, making them more effective players. There still seems to be a fairly good chance that they'll be guys that put up nice stats on bad teams most of their careers though.

You can say the same thing about Jerryd Bayless for that matter. Granted I like him more because his percentages are good, he's more likely to handle the PG role, and he's getting very little help from a not so talented Arizona team (really only Bayless and Budinger are any good and Hill is kinda mediocre but forced to produce, Gordon is on a good Indiana team and Mayo has two other solid talents in Jefferson and Gibson as well as a couple other passable guards), but he also turns it over a lot and can try to force the issue too much.